Bob Marley and the Three Little Birds

Every little thing is gonna be alright

The US elections came to a quick end early end Wednesday morning. As soon as the sun peeked above the foggy horizon the worry posters in renewable energy frantically pecked away at their keyboards.

I try to avoid worrying about situations outside of my control. But I am an engineer. And the pocket protector brigade generally has a Plan B, Plan C and, yes, a Plan Z.

First, it's hard to unwind what's already done. During the first Trump administration wind installations were rather plentiful. This was driven by a lower cost of capital and raw materials. Yes, there was complaining from behind the presidential podium, but wind energy continued to grow. Look for more growth in wind, particularly onshore in "red" states.

Second, there are only 24 hours in a day. About 6 of them are productive. In any newly minted administration, it is preoccupied with getting cabinet members and a vast set of appointments through Congress. Add in the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East along with an uneasy economy, there will be little time to focus on wind energy for at least a year.

The red states have plenty of employment and a steady stream of tax revenue from wind. Those states are not looking for changes. They will likely continue to expand wind and solar and batteries over the next 4 years.

Offshore wind in the US, on the other hand, is chained to high interest rates, inflated raw material costs and supply chain nightmares. It's probably due for a little bit of a slowdown to refocus on profitable projects. Could a new president issue an executive order to stop all offshore projects?  Maybe. A simpler path would be to let the "blue" state governors along the US East Coast deal with their offshore wind projects - warts and all. Those governors have not shown a great deal of leadership to get projects finished anyway. It is very plausible that the new administration will just sit back and let the governors deal with it. The "not my problem" approach.

So while many in renewable energy will be flustered on January 20, 2025, I don’t see much changing. The industry is loaded with good tech and good people. As the great Bob Marley wrote in his song Three Little Birds - "Don't worry about a thing, cause every little thing is gonna be alright"

Wind energy will be fine.

Stay charged!

Allen